U.S. and Canadian Markets
U.S. stocks struggled in February amid fears that artificial intelligence would disrupt a wide swath of industries, unsettling investors. Late in the month, geopolitical concerns weighed on the market amid tensions in the Middle East.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.87 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 3.38 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged higher, picking up 0.17 percent. The S&P/TSX Composite gained 7.57 percent. 1,2
“You can always improve.”— Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, NBA Champion 2025, NBA Most Valuable Player 2025, four-time NBA All-Star, three-time All-NBA First Team member
Dow 50,000
U.S. stocks bounded out of the gate, with the Dow leading a broad rise across all three major averages. The Dow led, closing above the 50,000 level for the first time. The University of Michigan February survey showed consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in six months, helping buoy investor sentiment.3
AI Disruption
As the month wore on, stocks came under pressure as AI disruption fears spread across several industry groups. Traders grew concerned that AI could disrupt certain business models, prompting some to reassess valuations in affected sectors. 4
But markets rebounded modestly following a Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading that showed the pace of inflation slowed in January. 5
Geopolitical Tensions
As the month came to a close, stocks came under pressure amid investor concern over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The AI fears returned after a new research report showed AI could potentially impact the broader economy and affect the unemployment rate. 6
U.S. Sectors
Seven of the 11 Standard & Poor’s 500 Index sectors finished the month in the green, while four were under pressure. 7
Energy (+9.54 percent) and Utilities (+10.36 percent) posted solid gains, while Industrials (+7.07 percent), Consumer Staples (+7.78 percent), Materials (+8.40 percent), and Real Estate (+5.82 percent) also had a good month. Health Care rose 3.53 percent. 7
On the downside, Consumer Discretionary (-3.56 percent) and Information Technology (-3.56 percent) were under pressure. Financials (-3.76 percent) and Communication Services (-1.69 percent) also had a disappointing month. 7
Canada Recap
Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index had a solid month, bolstered by materials, energy, and financial sectors as well as the global AI infrastructure buildout. The TSX advanced steadily over the month, hitting multiple record highs, with a fairly even distribution across all four weeks. 8,9
Canadian markets benefited from global uncertainty last month as investors sought safe-haven assets, including record-high gold and silver prices that helped make the materials sector the primary driver of returns. Fourth-quarter earnings for Canadian materials companies (more than half have reported so far) are up 130 percent year over year. 10
What Investors May Be Talking About in March
If you follow the Fed, you may know that the Federal Open Market Committee meets eight times each year to vote on the direction of interest rates. 11
What you may not know is that every other FOMC meeting, the Fed issues its “Summary of Economic Projections.”
The summary provides a forecast for gross domestic product, unemployment, inflation, and the federal funds rate. 11
The most talked-about feature of the summary is the “dot plot,” which shows each policymaker’s projected path for the federal funds rate. The dot plot represents one of the most important forward-looking monetary policy signals, as even small changes in projections can move stock and bond markets in either direction.
World Markets
The MSCI EAFE Index rose 4.50 percent in February. 12,13
Every major developed European market advanced last month, with many underperforming the overall MSCI EAFE Index. France (+5.59 percent) and the United Kingdom (+6.72 percent) led the way among the majors. Elsewhere, Italy (+3.70 percent), Germany (+3.04 percent), and Spain (+2.68 percent) all notched solid gains. 13
Markets outside of Europe also gained in February. Mexico (+5.63 percent) was one of the top performers. India was under pressure, falling 1.19 percent. 13
In the Pacific Rim, Korea’s KOSPI continued to turn heads, tacking on another 19.52 percent, bringing its year-to-date gain to 48.17 percent. Japan (+10.37 percent) and Australia (+3.72 percent) had strong months, while Hong Kong (-2.76 percent) lagged. 13
Indicators
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The U.S. economy grew 1.4 percent on an annualized basis in Q4, below the 2.5 percent growth economists expected and short of Q3’s 4.4 percent pace—the fastest GDP growth in two years. The slowing pace of economic growth reflected a drop in spending due to the six-week government shutdown. 14
The Canadian economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.6 percent in Q4. Economists expected a 0.2 percent contraction. The Canadian GDP grew 1.7 percent during 2025. 15
Employment
U.S. employers added 130,000 jobs in January, marking the strongest monthly job growth in over a year. January’s numbers more than doubled economists’ expectations of a 55,000 net job gain. January’s unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3 percent. 16
The January report also included substantial downward revisions going back two years, cutting the total net job gain for last year from 584,000 to 181,000, and for 2024 from 2 million to 1.5 million jobs added. 16
Canadian employers shed a net 24,800 jobs in January, compared with December’s 10,100 net job gain. Canada’s unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent. 17
By the Numbers: Maple Syrup
Global maple syrup market value in 2025: $1.64 Billion 31
Projected market value by 2034: $3.03 Billion 32
Percentage of the world's maple syrup produced by Canada in 2024: 73% 33
Canada's total maple syrup production in 2024: 19.9 Million Gallons 34
U.S. total maple syrup production in 2024: 5.86 Million Gallons 35
Percentage of Canadian production from Quebec: 90.7% 36
Number of syrup taps in the U.S. in 2024: 17.1 Million 37
Amount of sap needed to produce 1 liter of syrup: 40 Liters 38
Capacity of Quebec's Global Strategic Maple Syrup Reserve: 133 Million Pounds 39
Year the Wilson-Gorman Tariff revised the McKinley Act, making maple syrup competitive with cane sugar again: 1894 40
Average yield per tap in the U.S. in 2024: 0.342 Gallons 41
