U.S. Markets
Stocks were mixed in November as a late-month rally almost clawed back losses from earlier in the month.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.13 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.51 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.32 percent.1
Then the Grinch thought of something he hadn't before! What if Christmas, he thought, doesn't come from a store. What if Christmas… perhaps… means a little bit more! - Dr. Seuss, How the Grinch Stole Christmas!
Focus on AI
Stocks hit a rough patch early in the month as investors grew skittish over the valuation of tech companies that are investing in AI.2
Labor market news exacerbated the selling pressure. While ADP’s latest report showed stronger-than-expected hiring by private employers in October, the positive market sentiment was countered by a well-known outplacement firm's report of a steep increase in corporate layoffs the same month.3,4
Economy Watch
Stocks slid again after news that consumer sentiment hit its lowest level in three years. The survey data appeared to confirm investors' fears about the fragile labor market.5
After the federal government’s shutdown ended, investors' focus shifted to the Fed as they kept an eye on big consumer-related stocks for insights into the economy.6
Sector Scorecard
Health Care (+9.29 percent) was the clear leader for the month. Energy (+1.30 percent), Real Estate (+1.88 percent), Materials (+4.35 percent), Consumer Staples (+4.05 percent), Financials (+1.83 percent), Utilities (+1.72 percent), and Communication Services (+0.51 percent) all finished higher.9
On the downside, the Technology sector dropped nearly 5 percent (-4.81 percent). Also lower were Consumer Discretionary (-1.45 percent) and Industrials (-0.88 percent).9
What Investors May Be Talking About in December
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds its last rate-setting meeting of the year on December 9 and 10. That meeting is expected to be very closely watched—and talked about—by investors.
Some Fed officials in November threw cold water on the possibility of a rate change. In fact, the minutes from the Fed’s October meeting—released November 19—showed the Committee's voting members remained divided over making another rate adjustment at the December meeting.10
But New York’s Fed President Williams calmed markets on November 21 by suggesting all options were still on the table.11
In September, the Fed shifted its policy to an easing stance and cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point. It also “penciled in” additional rate moves this year. But Chair Powell underscored that the decision to adjust rates at the December meeting was not a foregone conclusion.
World Markets
The MSCI EAFE Index trended slightly higher, rising 0.46 percent.12
Spain (+2.11 percent) was the clear leader among the majors. Italy (+0.42 percent), the United Kingdom (+0.03 percent), and France (+0.02 percent) logged modest returns. Germany (-0.51 percent) was under pressure.13
Markets outside of Europe were mixed.
Brazil (+6.37 percent) was among the best-performing markets, while Egypt (+6.50 percent), Mexico (+1.32 percent), and India (+2.11 percent) also had a solid month.13
Pacific Rim markets had a rougher go of it. Australia (-3.02 percent), Korea (-4.40 percent), and Japan (-4.12 percent) all finished lower.13
Indicators
Please note that, due to the delayed release of up-to-date government data for most indicators listed below, we have used non-government sources as proxies where necessary and/or as a supplement to the latest available federal data.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The economy grew at a 3.9 percent pace in the third quarter, based on the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow estimate on November 30. That pace was down from the 4.2 percent GDPNow estimate for Q3 GDP growth as of October 27, but still higher than second-quarter growth of 3.8 percent based on official government data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.14,15
Employment
Private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs over the last three weeks of October, according to ADP, revised up from its initial estimate of 42,000 jobs added for the month. The shutdown-delayed September jobs report showed employers added 119,000 jobs—the most substantial monthly gain since April and a significant rebound from August’s loss of 4,000 jobs (revised down from a 22,000 gain).16
The report was all but complete when the government shut down on October 1, so this was among the first post-shutdown reports to be published by the Labor Department.17
Retail Sales
Consumer spending, excluding cars and car parts, rose 0.4 percent in October over the prior month, as estimated by the Chicago Fed’s Advance Retail Trade Summary—a slight uptick from September’s downwardly revised 0.3 percent monthly increase. The shutdown-delayed report from the Commerce Department showed the pace of retail sales cooled slightly in September, rising 0.2 percent over the prior month.18,19
Industrial Production
Manufacturing activity contracted at a quicker pace in November, falling 0.5 percentage points over the prior month, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). ISM’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) composite fell to a 48.2 percent reading last month. (Any reading above 42.3 percent over a sustained period indicates an expansion of the overall economy.)20,21
Housing
Homebuilder confidence for newly built single-family homes rose 1 point in November over the prior month, to a score of 38. October’s score of 37 was its highest reading in six months, suggesting that homebuilder confidence is holding for now, despite less builder optimism overall. (A reading over 50 indicates most single-family homebuilders are confident in overall housing market conditions, while a lower reading indicates less builder optimism.)22
Sales of existing homes rose 1.2 percent in October over the prior month, and 1.7 percent year over year. Regionally, sales increased month over month in the Midwest and South, were flat in the Northeast, and fell in the West. The median existing home sales price in October was $415,200, 2.1 percent higher than a year ago. Supply decreased 0.7 percent in September over August, and by 10.9 percent year over year.23
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Consumer prices rose 0.3 percent in September over the prior month (based on the latest available federal data), lower than the 0.4 percent rise economists expected and cooler than August’s 0.4 percent monthly increase. Year-over-year, prices rose 3.0 percent, also slower than economists’ expectations and a slight uptick from August’s 2.9 percent increase. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2 percent month over month and 3.0 percent year over year—both cooler than expectations.24
Durable Goods Orders
Orders of manufactured goods designed to last three years or longer increased 0.5 percent in September (based on the latest available federal data), meeting market expectations. It followed August’s upwardly revised 3.0 percent rise. Both shipments and orders of core goods rose, suggesting resilience in capital spending as businesses looked to the fourth quarter.25
The Fed
Although the Federal Reserve did not hold a meeting in November, minutes from its October meeting were released on November 19.
The minutes showed the Committee's voting members remained divided over making another rate adjustment at the December meeting. Investors took notice of the divisions, which led to some anxiety on Wall Street.26
The bounce was sharp as stocks battled through mixed economic data. The markets ended the month on a five-day winning streak, however, which curbed losses for all three major averages.8
Additionally, Fed officials gave speeches every week in November. With many key October reports (including inflation) and some September reports still being worked on from the shutdown-related backlog, Fed presidents and governors seemed to be trying to over-communicate in the absence of federal data. One notable example was a November 21 speech from New York’s Fed President John Williams in which he seemed to reassure investors that an adjustment at the Fed's December meeting was still on the table.27
The Federal Reserve’s final meeting of the year is December 9-10, when the Fed will publish a Summary of Economic Projections.
By the Numbers: Gift Wrapping
Global market value of gift-wrapping products in 2024: $20.4 billion28
Projected market value by 2030: $31.31 billion29
Amount of wrapping paper thrown away annually in the U.S.: 2.3 million pounds30
Percentage of holiday waste from wrapping paper and bags: 25%31
Percentage of consumers willing to pay someone else to wrap gifts: 71%32
Percentage of consumers who prefer custom-designed wrapping: 52%33
Percentage of Americans who reuse gift bags and wrapping: 87%34
Average amount spent on gift wrap during holidays: $5635
Percentage of top retail chains pledging to phase out non-recyclable wrapping by 2025: 37%36
Year Scotch Tape was invented, revolutionizing gift wrapping: 193037
Annual Scotch Tape production: 5.5 million miles37
