U.S. Markets
Stocks advanced for the sixth consecutive month in October as major averages pushed through a government shutdown and trade jitters. Robust Q3 corporate results drove momentum over a month that is notorious for market declines.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 2.27 percent while the Nasdaq Composite rose 4.70 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.51 percent. It was the sixth consecutive month of stock market gains.1
“The most important thing to do if you find yourself in a hole is to stop digging.” - Warren Buffett
The Return of Trade Jitters (Again)
The sentiment then turned negative on the second Friday of the month, following the White House's announcement of a tariff increase on imported goods from China. The drop, led by chip manufacturers, was the largest single-day decline for stocks since April. Stocks rebounded after the White House struck a more conciliatory tone regarding China.4,5
Three-Week Rally Wraps a Strong Month
Stocks then staged an impressive, if choppy, rebound over several days, fueled by mostly positive, better-than-expected quarterly results from a handful of major money center banks. The gains overpowered negative sentiment around lingering trade concerns.6
Tech-led leadership took over from the financials and pushed the market higher. Mild inflation data also contributed to momentum and helped soften concerns over trade tensions with China. The S&P 500 and Dow Industrials hit multiple all-time highs.7,8
Stocks rose again over the final week of October as investors cheered upbeat Q3 corporate results and a new trade truce with China.9
Sector Scorecard
Five of the 11 S&P 500 Index sectors finished the month in the green, which helped underscore the influence of technology.10
Technology (+6.68 percent) was the clear leader over the quarter, besting the overall index by more than 4 percentage points. Health Care (+3.65 percent) and Utilities (+2.17 percent) also helped support the market’s gain. Industrials (+0.54 percent) and Consumer Discretionary (+0.12 percent) also finished higher, but lagged the S&P 500’s return.10
On the downside, Materials (-4.41 percent), Communication Services (-3.01 percent), Financials (-2.78 percent), Consumer Staples (-2.67 percent), Real Estate (-2.92 percent) and Energy (-1.35 percent) were under pressure.10
What Investors May Be Talking About in November
There’s no Fed meeting in the month ahead, so expect investors to pay close attention to any other news that may give insights into the economy.
Any updates from China, for example, might also move markets, as well as updates on agreements with countries that possess rare earth metals.
However, by mid-November, most S&P 500 firms will have reported their results, so investors can expect to react when Wall Street analysts start publishing their 2026 outlooks.
World Markets
The MSCI EAFE Index rose 1.10 percent in October. While it trailed all three major U.S. averages last month, the EAFE Index is still having a solid year through October.11,12
European markets were higher. The United Kingdom (+3.92 percent) and Spain (+3.60 percent) led the major developed markets. France was up 2.85 percent for the month. By contrast, Italy (+1.05 percent) and Germany (+0.32 percent) lagged.12
Korea (+19.94 percent) and Japan (+14.23 percent) posted head-turning gains among Pacific Rim markets. Meanwhile, China’s Hang Seng Index fell 3.52 percent.12
Indicators
Please note that, due to the delayed release of up-to-date government data for most indicators listed below, we have used non-government sources as proxies where necessary.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The economy grew at a 4.0 percent pace in the third quarter, based on the October 31 GDPNow estimates from the Atlanta Federal Reserve, likely driven by continued robust consumer spending. That was slightly higher than the 3.8 percent pace of growth in the second quarter, based on official government data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.13
Employment
Private employers shed 32,000 jobs in September, the largest drop in 2½ years and considerably lower than the 45,000 job gain economists expected. Job losses were widespread across most sectors, with notable exceptions in the education and health services sectors. August jobs data was revised down substantially, to a loss of 3,000 corporate jobs from an initially reported increase of 54,000 jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payrolls report was not published for September.14
Retail Sales
Consumer spending, excluding cars and car parts, rose 0.5 percent in September over the prior month, as estimated by the Chicago Fed’s Advance Retail Trade Summary. That compared with a 0.7 percent monthly rise in August. Despite a slight decline, it still marked the fourth consecutive month of rising retail sales. Year-over-year retail sales rose 2.5 percent in September, versus 3.8 percent in August.15
Manufacturing
Manufacturing activity inched up 0.4 percentage points over the prior month, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). ISM’s Manufacturing PMI composite rose to a 49.1 percent reading last month (any reading above 42.3 percent over a sustained period indicates an expansion of the overall economy). Drops in new orders and inventories outweighed gains in production growth.16
Housing
Homebuilder confidence for newly built single-family homes rose 5 points in October over the prior month to a score of 37—its highest reading in six months. (A reading over 50 indicates most single-family homebuilders are confident in overall housing market conditions, while a lower reading indicates less builder optimism.)17
Sales of existing homes rose 1.5 percent in September over the prior month, and 4.1 percent year over year. Regionally, sales increased on a month-over-month basis in the Northeast, South, and West, and on a year-over-year basis in the Northeast, Midwest, and South. The median existing home sales price in September was $415,200, 2.1 percent higher than a year ago. Supply increased 1.3 percent in September over August, and by 14.0 percent year-over-year.18
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Consumer prices rose 0.3 percent in September over the prior month, lower than the 0.4 percent rise economists expected and cooler than August’s 0.4 percent monthly increase. Year over year, prices rose 3.0 percent, also slower than economists’ expectations and a slight uptick from August’s 2.9 percent increase. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2 percent month over month and 3.0 percent year over year—both cooler than expectations.19
Durable Goods Orders
Orders of manufactured goods designed to last three years or longer declined 2.8 percent in July, beating market expectations for a 4.0 percent drop.20
The Fed
Minutes from the Fed’s September meeting were released on October 8 and showed a closely divided Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). While all but one FOMC voting member voted to lower rates at the September meeting, only a slim 10-9 majority favored two additional quarter-point cuts through year-end. But Minutes also revealed growing concern about the labor market among Committee members.20
That concern was reflected in Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech the following week.21
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve cut short-term interest rates by 0.25 percent at the FOMC meeting on October 29. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in his post-meeting press conference that another rate adjustment in December was “not a foregone conclusion.” He added that Fed policy is “not on a pre-set course.” Part of that, he said, was due to the ongoing government shutdown and the challenge in setting monetary policy without those reports.22
The Federal Reserve’s next meeting (the last one of the year) is December 9-10, when the Fed will also publish a Summary of Economic Projections.
By the Numbers: Thanksgiving
The average cost of a Thanksgiving meal for 10 last year: $58.0823
The average cost of a Thanksgiving meal in the Western U.S., the most expensive region: $67.0523
The average cost of a turkey last year was 43% of the total dinner cost for 10: $25.6723
The average cost of a Thanksgiving meal in the Southern U.S., the least expensive region: $56.8123
The average turkey size: 16 lbs24
The most popular Thanksgiving side dish: Stuffing: #125
The second most popular side dish: Mashed Potatoes: #225
The third most popular side dish: Sweet Potatoes: #325
The fourth most popular side dish: Green Bean Casserole: #425
The fifth most popular side dish: Mac & Cheese: #525
The proportion of Thanksgiving celebrations that include a kids' table: 2 in 525
How long people typically spend preparing for their Thanksgiving feast: 3 weeks24
The average Thanksgiving feast start time: 4:00 PM24
The average amount of time it takes to prepare Thanksgiving dinner: 7 hours24
The share of Americans who at least sometimes help cook part of the Thanksgiving meal: 99%25
